Avellino vs Sampdoria prediction and preview

9 Oct 2026, 18:30 UTC

The PunterPick prediction

Over 1.5 GoalsOdds 1.30Market probability 72%Final score 4–1

Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.

Match preview

Avellino host Sampdoria in the Serie B (Italy) on 9 Oct 2026, 18:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.30, which the bookmaker market rated at about 72% once the bookmaker margin is removed.

Final score: Avellino 4–1 Sampdoria.

Going into the match, Avellino had won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 19 and conceding 17. Sampdoria had won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 10 scored and 13 conceded.

Both teams scored in 6 of Avellino's last 10 and 5 of Sampdoria's last 10; 7 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Avellino averaged 1.63 goals scored and 0.75 conceded across 8 matches; away from home Sampdoria averaged 0.75 scored and 1.25 conceded across 8.

Our team-strength model expects about 1.90 goals from Avellino and 0.96 from Sampdoria. From that it rates a home win at 58%, a draw at 24% and an away win at 18%, against 35%, 29% and 36% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 79%.

Team comparison

Share of each factor between Avellino (green) and Sampdoria (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.

Recent form64% – 36%

Attack58% – 42%

Defence60% – 40%

Head-to-head50% – 50%

Goals50% – 50%

Overall strength60% – 39%

Form before the match

Team	Last 5	Scored	Conceded	BTTS	O2.5
Avellino	LDWWL	1.90	1.70	60%	70%
Sampdoria	WLLLD	1.00	1.30	50%	40%

Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.

Other markets we priced

Market	Our probability	Odds
Over 1.5 Goals	72%	1.30
Double Chance 12	71%	1.33
1st Half Under 1.5 Goals	69%	1.36
1st Half Over 0.5 Goals	67%	1.40
BTTS Yes	54%	1.80
Under 2.5 Goals	52%	1.80
Over 8.5 Corners	52%	1.82
Over 2.5 Goals	48%	2.00

Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.