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Serie B · Brazil
Avai vs Ceara prediction and preview
3 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Avai host Ceara in the Serie B (Brazil) on 3 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 2.5 Goals — fewer than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.57, which the bookmaker market rated at about 60% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Avai 0–1 Ceara.
Going into the match, Avai had won 3, drawn 1 and lost 6 of their last 10 matches, scoring 9 and conceding 14. Ceara had won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 13 scored and 14 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Avai's last 10 and 7 of Ceara's last 10; 5 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Avai averaged 1.38 goals scored and 0.88 conceded across 16 matches; away from home Ceara averaged 0.94 scored and 1.56 conceded across 16.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.30 goals from Avai and 1.04 from Ceara. From that it rates a home win at 41%, a draw at 30% and an away win at 28%, against 36%, 31% and 32% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 59%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Avai (green) and Ceara (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 11 Jun 2026 · Ceara 2–1 Avai
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| Double Chance 12 | 69% | 1.36 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 60% | 1.57 |
| Over 9.5 Corners | 56% | 1.67 |
| BTTS No | 51% | 1.80 |
| Avai Win | 36% | 2.60 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.