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Bundesliga · Austria
Austria Vienna vs Sturm Graz prediction and preview
10 Oct 2026, 17:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Austria Vienna host Sturm Graz in the Bundesliga (Austria) on 10 Oct 2026, 17:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 65% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Austria Vienna 0–2 Sturm Graz.
Going into the match, Austria Vienna had won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 20 and conceding 13. Sturm Graz had won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 14 scored and 11 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Austria Vienna's last 10 and 5 of Sturm Graz's last 10; 6 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Austria Vienna averaged 1.15 goals scored and 1.31 conceded across 13 matches; away from home Sturm Graz averaged 1.73 scored and 1.27 conceded across 11.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.32 goals from Austria Vienna and 1.28 from Sturm Graz. From that it rates a home win at 37%, a draw at 29% and an away win at 35%, against 30%, 27% and 43% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 74%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Austria Vienna (green) and Sturm Graz (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austria Vienna | WDWWL | 2.00 | 1.30 | 50% | 60% |
| Sturm Graz | WLDWW | 1.40 | 1.10 | 50% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 26 Apr 2026 · Sturm Graz 1–1 Austria Vienna
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 78% | 1.20 |
| Double Chance 12 | 74% | 1.28 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| BTTS Yes | 59% | 1.57 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 56% | 1.70 |
| Under 11.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.