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Liga Nacional · Guatemala
Aurora vs Xelajú prediction and preview
10 Oct 2026, 21:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Aurora host Xelajú in the Liga Nacional (Guatemala) on 10 Oct 2026, 21:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance 12 — either side to win, with no draw. It was published at odds of 1.25, which the bookmaker market rated at about 72% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Aurora 2–1 Xelajú.
Going into the match, Aurora had won 4, drawn 0 and lost 6 of their last 10 matches, scoring 16 and conceding 17. Xelajú had won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 20 scored and 11 conceded.
Both teams scored in 8 of Aurora's last 10 and 5 of Xelajú's last 10; 8 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Aurora averaged 1.25 goals scored and 1.00 conceded across 8 matches; away from home Xelajú averaged 1.46 scored and 2.08 conceded across 13.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.02 goals from Aurora and 1.42 from Xelajú. From that it rates a home win at 51%, a draw at 23% and an away win at 26%, against 38%, 28% and 34% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 77%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Aurora (green) and Xelajú (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 4 Aug 2026 · Xelajú 3–1 Aurora
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 72% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 67% | 1.38 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 67% | 1.39 |
| Under 9.5 Corners | 56% | 1.67 |
| BTTS Yes | 54% | 1.70 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 51% | 1.85 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 49% | 1.95 |
| Aurora Win | 39% | 2.35 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.