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Primera División · Bolivia
Aurora vs Nacional Potosí prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 21:15 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Aurora host Nacional Potosí in the Primera División (Bolivia) on 11 Oct 2026, 21:15 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.50, which the bookmaker market rated at about 62% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Aurora 2–2 Nacional Potosí.
Going into the match, Aurora had won 6, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, scoring 18 and conceding 9. Nacional Potosí had won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 24 scored and 11 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Aurora's last 10 and 4 of Nacional Potosí's last 10; 4 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Aurora averaged 2.15 goals scored and 1.31 conceded across 13 matches; away from home Nacional Potosí averaged 1.31 scored and 1.46 conceded across 13.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.47 goals from Aurora and 1.41 from Nacional Potosí. From that it rates a home win at 38%, a draw at 27% and an away win at 35%, against 56%, 24% and 20% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 67%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Aurora (green) and Nacional Potosí (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aurora | WDDWW | 1.80 | 0.90 | 50% | 40% |
| Nacional Potosí | WWDWL | 2.40 | 1.10 | 40% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 10 Jul 2026 · Nacional Potosí 2–0 Aurora
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 77% | 1.22 |
| Double Chance 12 | 76% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.28 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 62% | 1.50 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 59% | 1.57 |
| BTTS Yes | 58% | 1.62 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 58% | 1.60 |
| Aurora Win | 56% | 1.65 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.