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Liga MX · Mexico
Atletico San Luis vs Santos Laguna prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 23:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Atletico San Luis host Santos Laguna in the Liga MX (Mexico) on 11 Oct 2026, 23:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.50, which the bookmaker market rated at about 63% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Atletico San Luis 1–2 Santos Laguna.
Going into the match, Atletico San Luis had won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 15 and conceding 23. Santos Laguna had won 4, drawn 1 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 11 scored and 13 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Atletico San Luis's last 10 and 4 of Santos Laguna's last 10; 8 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Atletico San Luis averaged 1.78 goals scored and 1.11 conceded across 9 matches; away from home Santos Laguna averaged 1.33 scored and 2.00 conceded across 12.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.33 goals from Atletico San Luis and 1.49 from Santos Laguna. From that it rates a home win at 33%, a draw at 27% and an away win at 40%, against 49%, 26% and 25% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 69%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Atletico San Luis (green) and Santos Laguna (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico San Luis | WWLLW | 1.50 | 2.30 | 70% | 80% |
| Santos Laguna | WWWLD | 1.10 | 1.30 | 40% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 23 Apr 2026 · Atletico San Luis 2–0 Santos Laguna
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 75% | 1.25 |
| Double Chance 1X | 74% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 73% | 1.28 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 61% | 1.53 |
| BTTS Yes | 60% | 1.57 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 58% | 1.65 |
| Over 9.5 Corners | 52% | 1.82 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.