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Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 · Spain
Atlético Paso vs Real Madrid III prediction and preview
3 Oct 2026, 18:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Atlético Paso host Real Madrid III in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 (Spain) on 3 Oct 2026, 18:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance X2 — Real Madrid III to win or draw. It was published at odds of 1.28, which the bookmaker market rated at about 71% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Atlético Paso 1–0 Real Madrid III.
Going into the match, Atlético Paso had won 1, drawn 6 and lost 2 of their last 9 matches, scoring 6 and conceding 8. Real Madrid III had won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 8 scored and 10 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Atlético Paso's last 9 and 2 of Real Madrid III's last 10; 1 and 3 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Atlético Paso averaged 0.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded across 4 matches; away from home Real Madrid III averaged 1.00 scored and 0.71 conceded across 7.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.78 goals from Atlético Paso and 0.51 from Real Madrid III. From that it rates a home win at 37%, a draw at 42% and an away win at 21%, against 29%, 30% and 41% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 63%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Atlético Paso (green) and Real Madrid III (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlético Paso | DLDLD | 0.67 | 0.89 | 44% | 11% |
| Real Madrid III | LDDWL | 0.80 | 1.00 | 20% | 30% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance X2 | 71% | 1.28 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 62% | 1.50 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 60% | 1.57 |
| BTTS No | 53% | 1.74 |
| Real Madrid III Win | 41% | 2.20 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 40% | 2.35 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.00 |
| 0-0 | 14% | 6.50 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.