Home › League stats › Serie A › Atletico Paranaense vs Atletico-MG
Serie A · Brazil
Atletico Paranaense vs Atletico-MG prediction and preview
8 Oct 2026, 23:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Atletico Paranaense host Atletico-MG in the Serie A (Brazil) on 8 Oct 2026, 23:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.33, which the bookmaker market rated at about 71% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Atletico Paranaense 2–2 Atletico-MG.
Going into the match, Atletico Paranaense had won 4, drawn 4 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 17 and conceding 17. Atletico-MG had won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 14 scored and 11 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Atletico Paranaense's last 10 and 6 of Atletico-MG's last 10; 6 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Atletico Paranaense averaged 1.55 goals scored and 0.64 conceded across 11 matches; away from home Atletico-MG averaged 0.88 scored and 1.18 conceded across 17.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.35 goals from Atletico Paranaense and 1.28 from Atletico-MG. From that it rates a home win at 37%, a draw at 29% and an away win at 34%, against 45%, 28% and 27% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 75%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Atletico Paranaense (green) and Atletico-MG (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Paranaense | WDLDW | 1.70 | 1.70 | 60% | 60% |
| Atletico-MG | WDWWL | 1.40 | 1.10 | 60% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 1X | 74% | 1.28 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 71% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 69% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 67% | 1.40 |
| Under 10.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 53% | 1.75 |
| BTTS Yes | 52% | 1.80 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 47% | 2.05 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.