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Primera A · Colombia
Atletico Nacional vs Junior prediction and preview
1 Oct 2026, 01:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Atletico Nacional host Junior in the Primera A (Colombia) on 1 Oct 2026, 01:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.20, which the bookmaker market rated at about 78% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Atletico Nacional 3–1 Junior.
Going into the match, Atletico Nacional had won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 19 and conceding 10. Junior had won 2, drawn 4 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 17 scored and 17 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Atletico Nacional's last 10 and 7 of Junior's last 10; 5 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Atletico Nacional averaged 2.27 goals scored and 0.64 conceded across 11 matches; away from home Junior averaged 1.31 scored and 1.62 conceded across 13.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.39 goals from Atletico Nacional and 0.95 from Junior. From that it rates a home win at 69%, a draw at 19% and an away win at 12%, against 66%, 21% and 13% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 86%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Atletico Nacional (green) and Junior (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Nacional | DDLWW | 1.90 | 1.00 | 60% | 50% |
| Junior | WWLDD | 1.70 | 1.70 | 70% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 9 Jun 2026 · Atletico Nacional 1–0 Junior
- 3 Jun 2026 · Junior 3–0 Atletico Nacional
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 78% | 1.20 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| Atletico Nacional Win | 66% | 1.42 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 61% | 1.53 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 56% | 1.67 |
| Under 9.5 Corners | 56% | 1.67 |
| BTTS Yes | 51% | 1.80 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.