Home › League stats › Copa Colombia › Atletico Nacional vs Independiente Medellin
Copa Colombia · Colombia
Atletico Nacional vs Independiente Medellin prediction and preview
15 Oct 2026, 01:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Atletico Nacional host Independiente Medellin in the Copa Colombia (Colombia) on 15 Oct 2026, 01:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.36, which the bookmaker market rated at about 69% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Atletico Nacional 3–2 Independiente Medellin.
Going into the match, Atletico Nacional had won 6, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, scoring 20 and conceding 9. Independiente Medellin had won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 18 scored and 13 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Atletico Nacional's last 10 and 7 of Independiente Medellin's last 10; 5 and 8 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Atletico Nacional averaged 2.15 goals scored and 0.62 conceded across 13 matches; away from home Independiente Medellin averaged 1.57 scored and 1.43 conceded across 14.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.35 goals from Atletico Nacional and 1.10 from Independiente Medellin. From that it rates a home win at 64%, a draw at 20% and an away win at 16%, against 55%, 26% and 19% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 55%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Atletico Nacional (green) and Independiente Medellin (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Nacional | DWDDL | 2.00 | 0.90 | 60% | 50% |
| Independiente Medellin | WLDLW | 1.80 | 1.30 | 70% | 80% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 12 Apr 2026 · Independiente Medellin 2–3 Atletico Nacional
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 75% | 1.28 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 75% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 69% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| Under 10.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
| Atletico Nacional Win | 53% | 1.73 |
| BTTS Yes | 53% | 1.73 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.