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Primera A · Colombia
Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Pasto prediction and preview
23 Oct 2026, 01:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Atletico Nacional host Deportivo Pasto in the Primera A (Colombia) on 23 Oct 2026, 01:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.40, which the bookmaker market rated at about 67% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, Atletico Nacional had won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 17 and conceding 11. Deportivo Pasto had won 2, drawn 3 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 7 scored and 14 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Atletico Nacional's last 10 and 4 of Deportivo Pasto's last 10; 4 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Atletico Nacional averaged 2.21 goals scored and 0.71 conceded across 14 matches; away from home Deportivo Pasto averaged 1.50 scored and 1.80 conceded across 10.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.60 goals from Atletico Nacional and 0.53 from Deportivo Pasto. From that it rates a home win at 81%, a draw at 14% and an away win at 5%, against 75%, 16% and 9% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 62%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Atletico Nacional (green) and Deportivo Pasto (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Nacional | LWWDW | 1.70 | 1.10 | 60% | 40% |
| Deportivo Pasto | LDLWW | 0.70 | 1.40 | 40% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 76% | 1.22 |
| Atletico Nacional Win | 74% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 73% | 1.28 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 67% | 1.40 |
| BTTS No | 61% | 1.50 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 61% | 1.53 |
| Over 8.5 Corners | 56% | 1.67 |
| Atletico Nacional 1st Half Win | 56% | 1.67 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.