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Primera A · Colombia
Atletico Nacional vs Deportes Tolima prediction and preview
8 Oct 2026, 23:05 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Atletico Nacional host Deportes Tolima in the Primera A (Colombia) on 8 Oct 2026, 23:05 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Atletico Nacional Win — Atletico Nacional to win. It was published at odds of 1.67, which the bookmaker market rated at about 58% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Atletico Nacional 0–0 Deportes Tolima.
Going into the match, Atletico Nacional had won 7, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, scoring 22 and conceding 10. Deportes Tolima had won 2, drawn 4 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 8 scored and 11 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Atletico Nacional's last 10 and 5 of Deportes Tolima's last 10; 6 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Atletico Nacional averaged 2.33 goals scored and 0.67 conceded across 12 matches; away from home Deportes Tolima averaged 0.86 scored and 1.64 conceded across 14.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.85 goals from Atletico Nacional and 0.76 from Deportes Tolima. From that it rates a home win at 62%, a draw at 24% and an away win at 14%, against 57%, 26% and 17% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 62%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Atletico Nacional (green) and Deportes Tolima (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Nacional | WDDLW | 2.20 | 1.00 | 70% | 60% |
| Deportes Tolima | DDDLL | 0.80 | 1.10 | 50% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 24 May 2026 · Atletico Nacional 3–1 Deportes Tolima
- 17 May 2026 · Deportes Tolima 0–1 Atletico Nacional
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 76% | 1.28 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 75% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 68% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| Atletico Nacional Win | 57% | 1.67 |
| Under 9.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
| BTTS Yes | 53% | 1.73 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.