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Serie A · Brazil
Atletico-MG vs Santos prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Atletico-MG host Santos in the Serie A (Brazil) on 11 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance 1X — Atletico-MG to win or draw. It was published at odds of 1.25, which the bookmaker market rated at about 74% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Atletico-MG 2–1 Santos.
Going into the match, Atletico-MG had won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 16 and conceding 13. Santos had won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 16 scored and 14 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Atletico-MG's last 10 and 6 of Santos's last 10; 5 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Atletico-MG averaged 1.76 goals scored and 1.00 conceded across 17 matches; away from home Santos averaged 1.56 scored and 1.28 conceded across 18.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.54 goals from Atletico-MG and 1.21 from Santos. From that it rates a home win at 44%, a draw at 28% and an away win at 29%, against 47%, 28% and 25% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 71%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Atletico-MG (green) and Santos (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico-MG | DWDWW | 1.60 | 1.30 | 70% | 50% |
| Santos | DWWLW | 1.60 | 1.40 | 60% | 70% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 17 Sep 2026 · Atletico-MG 4–2 Santos
- 10 Sep 2026 · Santos 2–0 Atletico-MG
- 12 Apr 2026 · Santos 1–0 Atletico-MG
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 1X | 74% | 1.25 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 73% | 1.28 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 72% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 68% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| Under 10.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
| BTTS Yes | 53% | 1.75 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 51% | 1.85 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.