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Serie A · Brazil
Atletico-MG vs RB Bragantino prediction and preview
3 Oct 2026, 21:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Atletico-MG host RB Bragantino in the Serie A (Brazil) on 3 Oct 2026, 21:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.25, which the bookmaker market rated at about 76% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Atletico-MG 1–0 RB Bragantino.
Going into the match, Atletico-MG had won 4, drawn 4 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 15 and conceding 13. RB Bragantino had won 2, drawn 3 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 10 scored and 14 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Atletico-MG's last 10 and 6 of RB Bragantino's last 10; 5 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Atletico-MG averaged 1.81 goals scored and 1.06 conceded across 16 matches; away from home RB Bragantino averaged 1.40 scored and 1.20 conceded across 15.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.31 goals from Atletico-MG and 0.95 from RB Bragantino. From that it rates a home win at 44%, a draw at 31% and an away win at 26%, against 46%, 27% and 26% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 67%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Atletico-MG (green) and RB Bragantino (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico-MG | DWWLL | 1.50 | 1.30 | 70% | 50% |
| RB Bragantino | LDLLW | 1.00 | 1.40 | 60% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 20 Aug 2026 · Atletico-MG 2–2 RB Bragantino
- 13 Aug 2026 · RB Bragantino 0–1 Atletico-MG
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 76% | 1.25 |
| Double Chance 1X | 73% | 1.28 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 68% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 68% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| BTTS Yes | 56% | 1.67 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 53% | 1.80 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 47% | 2.00 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.