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Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C · Portugal
Atlético Malveira vs Fazendense prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Atlético Malveira host Fazendense in the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C (Portugal) on 11 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Atlético Malveira Win — Atlético Malveira to win. It was published at odds of 1.40, which the bookmaker market rated at about 64% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Atlético Malveira 3–1 Fazendense.
Going into the match, Atlético Malveira had won 1, drawn 5 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 8 and conceding 16. Fazendense had won 2, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 6, with 12 scored and 13 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Atlético Malveira's last 10 and 4 of Fazendense's last 6; 4 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Atlético Malveira averaged 0.86 goals scored and 1.71 conceded across 7 matches; away from home Fazendense averaged 0.50 scored and 3.50 conceded across 2.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.01 goals from Atlético Malveira and 1.63 from Fazendense. From that it rates a home win at 46%, a draw at 23% and an away win at 31%, against 64%, 22% and 14% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 46%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Atlético Malveira (green) and Fazendense (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlético Malveira | DWDLL | 0.80 | 1.60 | 40% | 40% |
| Fazendense | LWLLW | 2.00 | 2.17 | 67% | 83% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 69% | 1.32 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 65% | 1.39 |
| Atlético Malveira Win | 64% | 1.40 |
| BTTS No | 52% | 1.75 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 51% | 1.85 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 49% | 1.95 |
| Atlético Malveira HT & FT | 43% | 2.16 |
| 1-0 | 14% | 6.50 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.