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Primera División Femenina · Spain
Atletico Madrid W vs Valencia W prediction and preview
23 Oct 2026, 17:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Atletico Madrid W host Valencia W in the Primera División Femenina (Spain) on 23 Oct 2026, 17:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.50, which the bookmaker market rated at about 62% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Atletico Madrid W 4–0 Valencia W.
Going into the match, Atletico Madrid W had won 4, drawn 1 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 16 and conceding 16. Valencia W had won 0, drawn 0 and lost 7 of their last 7, with 4 scored and 14 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Atletico Madrid W's last 10 and 4 of Valencia W's last 7; 6 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Atletico Madrid W averaged 2.40 goals scored and 0.40 conceded across 5 matches; away from home Valencia W averaged 0.50 scored and 2.00 conceded across 4.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.81 goals from Atletico Madrid W and 0.56 from Valencia W. From that it rates a home win at 83%, a draw at 13% and an away win at 4%, against 77%, 15% and 8% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 66%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Atletico Madrid W (green) and Valencia W (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid W | WWLWL | 1.60 | 1.60 | 50% | 60% |
| Valencia W | LLLLL | 0.57 | 2.00 | 57% | 57% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 76% | 1.22 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 62% | 1.50 |
| Atletico Madrid W 1st Half Win | 60% | 1.50 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 58% | 1.57 |
| Under 9.5 Corners | 56% | 1.67 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 54% | 1.73 |
| Atletico Madrid W HT & FT | 52% | 1.80 |
| BTTS No | 51% | 1.67 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.