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Atletico Madrid vs Manchester United prediction and preview
13 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Atletico Madrid host Manchester United in the UEFA Champions League (International) on 13 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS Yes — both teams to score. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 65% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Atletico Madrid 2–0 Manchester United.
Going into the match, Atletico Madrid had won 7, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 21 and conceding 11. Manchester United had won 2, drawn 4 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 18 scored and 17 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Atletico Madrid's last 10 and 7 of Manchester United's last 10; 9 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Atletico Madrid averaged 2.00 goals scored and 1.09 conceded across 11 matches; away from home Manchester United averaged 1.63 scored and 0.75 conceded across 8.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.03 goals from Atletico Madrid and 1.19 from Manchester United. From that it rates a home win at 56%, a draw at 23% and an away win at 21%, against 50%, 25% and 25% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 61%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Atletico Madrid (green) and Manchester United (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid | WWWWL | 2.10 | 1.10 | 60% | 90% |
| Manchester United | DDLLW | 1.80 | 1.70 | 70% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 1 Aug 2026 · Manchester United 2–1 Atletico Madrid
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 76% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 74% | 1.25 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 73% | 1.28 |
| BTTS Yes | 65% | 1.44 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 63% | 1.53 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 57% | 1.67 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 56% | 1.67 |
| Over 9.5 Corners | 50% | 1.83 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.