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Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Spain
Atlético Madrid II vs Zaragoza prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Atlético Madrid II host Zaragoza in the Primera División RFEF - Group 2 (Spain) on 11 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.40, which the bookmaker market rated at about 66% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Atlético Madrid II 4–4 Zaragoza.
Going into the match, Atlético Madrid II had won 2, drawn 3 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 12 and conceding 13. Zaragoza had won 8, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 20 scored and 10 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Atlético Madrid II's last 10 and 5 of Zaragoza's last 10; 5 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Atlético Madrid II averaged 2.56 goals scored and 1.89 conceded across 9 matches; away from home Zaragoza averaged 1.20 scored and 1.30 conceded across 10.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.57 goals from Atlético Madrid II and 1.68 from Zaragoza. From that it rates a home win at 35%, a draw at 25% and an away win at 40%, against 32%, 27% and 41% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 59%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Atlético Madrid II (green) and Zaragoza (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlético Madrid II | LLDWW | 1.20 | 1.30 | 40% | 50% |
| Zaragoza | WWWWW | 2.00 | 1.00 | 50% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 77% | 1.22 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 77% | 1.22 |
| Double Chance 12 | 73% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| BTTS Yes | 59% | 1.62 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 55% | 1.75 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.