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Serie B · Brazil
Atletico Goianiense vs Sport Recife prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 19:10 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Atletico Goianiense host Sport Recife in the Serie B (Brazil) on 11 Oct 2026, 19:10 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.25, which the bookmaker market rated at about 73% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Atletico Goianiense 1–1 Sport Recife.
Going into the match, Atletico Goianiense had won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 16 and conceding 7. Sport Recife had won 5, drawn 0 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 16 scored and 14 conceded.
Both teams scored in 3 of Atletico Goianiense's last 10 and 8 of Sport Recife's last 10; 5 and 9 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Atletico Goianiense averaged 1.50 goals scored and 0.72 conceded across 18 matches; away from home Sport Recife averaged 1.00 scored and 1.25 conceded across 16.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.37 goals from Atletico Goianiense and 0.85 from Sport Recife. From that it rates a home win at 48%, a draw at 30% and an away win at 22%, against 54%, 27% and 20% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 66%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Atletico Goianiense (green) and Sport Recife (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Goianiense | LWWLW | 1.60 | 0.70 | 30% | 50% |
| Sport Recife | WWLWL | 1.60 | 1.40 | 80% | 90% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 19 Jun 2026 · Sport Recife 1–1 Atletico Goianiense
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 74% | 1.28 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 73% | 1.25 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 71% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 68% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| Atletico Goianiense Win | 54% | 1.75 |
| BTTS Yes | 51% | 1.80 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 50% | 1.90 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.