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Primera Nacional · Argentina
Atletico DE Rafaela vs Atlanta prediction and preview
4 Oct 2026, 20:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Atletico DE Rafaela host Atlanta in the Primera Nacional (Argentina) on 4 Oct 2026, 20:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance 1X — Atletico DE Rafaela to win or draw. It was published at odds of 1.36, which the bookmaker market rated at about 69% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Atletico DE Rafaela 2–3 Atlanta.
Going into the match, Atletico DE Rafaela had won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 10 and conceding 9. Atlanta had won 5, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 9 scored and 10 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Atletico DE Rafaela's last 10 and 2 of Atlanta's last 10; 3 and 2 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Atletico DE Rafaela averaged 1.45 goals scored and 0.64 conceded across 11 matches; away from home Atlanta averaged 1.00 scored and 1.15 conceded across 13.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.03 goals from Atletico DE Rafaela and 1.06 from Atlanta. From that it rates a home win at 33%, a draw at 33% and an away win at 34%, against 35%, 34% and 31% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 66%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Atletico DE Rafaela (green) and Atlanta (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico DE Rafaela | LWLLW | 1.00 | 0.90 | 40% | 30% |
| Atlanta | WDWWL | 0.90 | 1.00 | 20% | 20% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 16 May 2026 · Atlanta 2–0 Atletico DE Rafaela
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 78% | 1.20 |
| Double Chance 1X | 69% | 1.36 |
| BTTS No | 61% | 1.53 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 58% | 1.62 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 56% | 1.67 |
| Under 1.5 Goals | 42% | 2.20 |
| Atletico DE Rafaela Win | 35% | 2.70 |
| Draw | 34% | 2.75 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.