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Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 · Spain
Atlético Baleares vs Poblense prediction and preview
4 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Atlético Baleares host Poblense in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 (Spain) on 4 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 2.5 Goals — fewer than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.60, which the bookmaker market rated at about 59% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Atlético Baleares 2–1 Poblense.
Going into the match, Atlético Baleares had won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 15 and conceding 11. Poblense had won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 7 scored and 9 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Atlético Baleares's last 10 and 3 of Poblense's last 10; 5 and 3 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Atlético Baleares averaged 2.17 goals scored and 1.33 conceded across 6 matches; away from home Poblense averaged 0.83 scored and 1.33 conceded across 6.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.80 goals from Atlético Baleares and 0.98 from Poblense. From that it rates a home win at 55%, a draw at 25% and an away win at 19%, against 53%, 28% and 20% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 47%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Atlético Baleares (green) and Poblense (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlético Baleares | DLDLW | 1.50 | 1.10 | 50% | 50% |
| Poblense | WLLLW | 0.70 | 0.90 | 30% | 30% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 14 Aug 2026 · Poblense 1–0 Atlético Baleares
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 72% | 1.28 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 71% | 1.31 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 62% | 1.49 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 59% | 1.60 |
| BTTS No | 56% | 1.64 |
| Atlético Baleares Win | 53% | 1.70 |
| Atlético Baleares HT & FT | 34% | 2.75 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.25 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.