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Primera C · Argentina
Atletico Atlas vs El Porvenir prediction and preview
12 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Atletico Atlas host El Porvenir in the Primera C (Argentina) on 12 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 2.5 Goals — fewer than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.57, which the bookmaker market rated at about 60% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Atletico Atlas 1–2 El Porvenir.
Going into the match, Atletico Atlas had won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 6 and conceding 8. El Porvenir had won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 9 scored and 13 conceded.
Both teams scored in 1 of Atletico Atlas's last 10 and 3 of El Porvenir's last 10; 0 and 3 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Atletico Atlas averaged 1.08 goals scored and 0.92 conceded across 12 matches; away from home El Porvenir averaged 0.92 scored and 1.08 conceded across 12.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.04 goals from Atletico Atlas and 0.70 from El Porvenir. From that it rates a home win at 42%, a draw at 35% and an away win at 23%, against 37%, 31% and 32% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 75%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Atletico Atlas (green) and El Porvenir (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Atlas | LDLLD | 0.60 | 0.80 | 10% | 0% |
| El Porvenir | DLLWL | 0.90 | 1.30 | 30% | 30% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 13 Jun 2026 · El Porvenir 0–1 Atletico Atlas
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| Double Chance 12 | 69% | 1.30 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 60% | 1.57 |
| BTTS No | 53% | 1.73 |
| Atletico Atlas Win | 37% | 2.40 |
| Under 1.5 Goals | 35% | 2.62 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.