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Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 · Spain
Atlético Astorga vs Ourense CF prediction and preview
10 Oct 2026, 14:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Atlético Astorga host Ourense CF in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 (Spain) on 10 Oct 2026, 14:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance X2 — Ourense CF to win or draw. It was published at odds of 1.28, which the bookmaker market rated at about 72% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Atlético Astorga 4–0 Ourense CF.
Going into the match, Atlético Astorga had won 2, drawn 2 and lost 6 of their last 10 matches, scoring 10 and conceding 14. Ourense CF had won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 10 scored and 11 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Atlético Astorga's last 10 and 4 of Ourense CF's last 10; 4 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Atlético Astorga averaged 1.00 goals scored and 0.78 conceded across 9 matches; away from home Ourense CF averaged 1.00 scored and 0.86 conceded across 7.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.25 goals from Atlético Astorga and 0.99 from Ourense CF. From that it rates a home win at 41%, a draw at 31% and an away win at 28%, against 29%, 28% and 43% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 59%.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlético Astorga | LLWLL | 1.00 | 1.40 | 40% | 40% |
| Ourense CF | DWLWW | 1.00 | 1.10 | 40% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance X2 | 72% | 1.28 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 63% | 1.48 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 57% | 1.70 |
| BTTS No | 51% | 1.80 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 43% | 2.10 |
| Ourense CF Win | 42% | 2.10 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.20 |
| Ourense CF HT & FT | 27% | 3.50 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.