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Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 · Spain
Atlético Astorga vs Amorebieta prediction and preview
3 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Atlético Astorga host Amorebieta in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 (Spain) on 3 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance 12 — either side to win, with no draw. It was published at odds of 1.28, which the bookmaker market rated at about 72% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Atlético Astorga 0–1 Amorebieta.
Going into the match, Atlético Astorga had won 2, drawn 3 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 11 and conceding 14. Amorebieta had won 2, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 9, with 11 scored and 11 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Atlético Astorga's last 10 and 4 of Amorebieta's last 9; 4 and 3 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Atlético Astorga averaged 1.13 goals scored and 0.75 conceded across 8 matches; away from home Amorebieta averaged 1.75 scored and 1.00 conceded across 4.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.91 goals from Atlético Astorga and 1.24 from Amorebieta. From that it rates a home win at 26%, a draw at 32% and an away win at 43%, against 34%, 28% and 38% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 68%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Atlético Astorga (green) and Amorebieta (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlético Astorga | LWLLL | 1.10 | 1.40 | 50% | 40% |
| Amorebieta | LWLDL | 1.22 | 1.22 | 44% | 33% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 72% | 1.28 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 62% | 1.48 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 53% | 1.80 |
| BTTS No | 50% | 1.83 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 47% | 2.00 |
| Amorebieta Win | 38% | 2.35 |
| 0-1 | 11% | 8.50 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.