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Serie D - Girone F · Italy
Atletico Ascoli vs Fossombrone prediction and preview
4 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Atletico Ascoli host Fossombrone in the Serie D - Girone F (Italy) on 4 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance 12 — either side to win, with no draw. It was published at odds of 1.25, which the bookmaker market rated at about 73% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Atletico Ascoli 0–1 Fossombrone.
Going into the match, Atletico Ascoli had won 2, drawn 4 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 9 and conceding 14. Fossombrone had won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 10 scored and 18 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Atletico Ascoli's last 10 and 5 of Fossombrone's last 10; 3 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Atletico Ascoli averaged 1.25 goals scored and 0.75 conceded across 4 matches; away from home Fossombrone averaged 0.67 scored and 1.17 conceded across 6.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.49 goals from Atletico Ascoli and 1.01 from Fossombrone. From that it rates a home win at 47%, a draw at 29% and an away win at 25%, against 50%, 27% and 23% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 72%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Atletico Ascoli (green) and Fossombrone (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Ascoli | LWDWL | 0.90 | 1.40 | 60% | 30% |
| Fossombrone | DLWLW | 1.00 | 1.80 | 50% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 19 Apr 2026 · Atletico Ascoli 1–1 Fossombrone
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 73% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 67% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 66% | 1.42 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 53% | 1.80 |
| BTTS Yes | 51% | 1.79 |
| Atletico Ascoli Win | 50% | 1.80 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 47% | 2.00 |
| Atletico Ascoli HT & FT | 30% | 3.10 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.