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Liga MX · Mexico
Atlas vs Guadalajara Chivas prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 01:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Atlas host Guadalajara Chivas in the Liga MX (Mexico) on 11 Oct 2026, 01:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS Yes — both teams to score. It was published at odds of 1.67, which the bookmaker market rated at about 57% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Atlas 1–1 Guadalajara Chivas.
Going into the match, Atlas had won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 15 and conceding 19. Guadalajara Chivas had won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 19 scored and 9 conceded.
Both teams scored in 8 of Atlas's last 10 and 4 of Guadalajara Chivas's last 10; 6 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Atlas averaged 0.91 goals scored and 1.45 conceded across 11 matches; away from home Guadalajara Chivas averaged 1.25 scored and 1.25 conceded across 12.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.05 goals from Atlas and 1.42 from Guadalajara Chivas. From that it rates a home win at 27%, a draw at 29% and an away win at 44%, against 27%, 26% and 46% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 50%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Atlas (green) and Guadalajara Chivas (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlas | WDLDL | 1.50 | 1.90 | 80% | 60% |
| Guadalajara Chivas | WLDWW | 1.90 | 0.90 | 40% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 76% | 1.25 |
| Double Chance X2 | 73% | 1.28 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 67% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| BTTS Yes | 57% | 1.67 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 53% | 1.80 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 47% | 2.00 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.