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Primera Nacional · Argentina
Atlanta vs San Martin Tucuman prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Atlanta host San Martin Tucuman in the Primera Nacional (Argentina) on 11 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance 1X — Atlanta to win or draw. It was published at odds of 1.28, which the bookmaker market rated at about 75% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Atlanta 1–0 San Martin Tucuman.
Going into the match, Atlanta had won 6, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 10 and conceding 8. San Martin Tucuman had won 3, drawn 4 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 15 scored and 15 conceded.
Both teams scored in 2 of Atlanta's last 10 and 7 of San Martin Tucuman's last 10; 2 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Atlanta averaged 1.42 goals scored and 0.67 conceded across 12 matches; away from home San Martin Tucuman averaged 0.86 scored and 1.43 conceded across 14.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.65 goals from Atlanta and 0.93 from San Martin Tucuman. From that it rates a home win at 53%, a draw at 27% and an away win at 20%, against 42%, 32% and 25% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 80%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Atlanta (green) and San Martin Tucuman (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta | WWDWW | 1.00 | 0.80 | 20% | 20% |
| San Martin Tucuman | WDLWL | 1.50 | 1.50 | 70% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 25 May 2026 · San Martin Tucuman 0–1 Atlanta
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 77% | 1.22 |
| Double Chance 1X | 75% | 1.28 |
| BTTS No | 60% | 1.50 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 58% | 1.62 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 58% | 1.62 |
| Atlanta Win | 43% | 2.20 |
| Under 1.5 Goals | 42% | 2.20 |
| Draw | 32% | 2.88 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.