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IFA Shield · India
ATK Mohun Bagan vs Minerva Punjab prediction and preview
4 Oct 2026, 11:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
ATK Mohun Bagan host Minerva Punjab in the IFA Shield (India) on 4 Oct 2026, 11:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is ATK Mohun Bagan Win — ATK Mohun Bagan to win. It was published at odds of 1.57, which the bookmaker market rated at about 57% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: ATK Mohun Bagan 0–0 Minerva Punjab.
Going into the match, ATK Mohun Bagan had won 4, drawn 4 and lost 0 of their last 8 matches, scoring 15 and conceding 6. Minerva Punjab had won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 17 scored and 9 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of ATK Mohun Bagan's last 8 and 2 of Minerva Punjab's last 10; 3 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home ATK Mohun Bagan averaged 2.17 goals scored and 0.83 conceded across 6 matches; away from home Minerva Punjab averaged 2.17 scored and 0.83 conceded across 6.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.84 goals from ATK Mohun Bagan and 0.72 from Minerva Punjab. From that it rates a home win at 34%, a draw at 38% and an away win at 28%, against 57%, 24% and 19% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 34%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between ATK Mohun Bagan (green) and Minerva Punjab (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATK Mohun Bagan | DWWDD | 1.88 | 0.75 | 63% | 38% |
| Minerva Punjab | WWLLW | 1.70 | 0.90 | 20% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 12 Apr 2026 · ATK Mohun Bagan 3–2 Minerva Punjab
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 76% | 1.20 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| ATK Mohun Bagan Win | 57% | 1.57 |
| Over 9.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
| BTTS No | 53% | 1.77 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 50% | 1.90 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 50% | 1.90 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.