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Primera División Femenina · Spain
Athletic Club W vs Valencia W prediction and preview
17 Oct 2026, 14:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Athletic Club W host Valencia W in the Primera División Femenina (Spain) on 17 Oct 2026, 14:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.40, which the bookmaker market rated at about 68% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Athletic Club W 1–0 Valencia W.
Going into the match, Athletic Club W had won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 18 and conceding 10. Valencia W had won 0, drawn 0 and lost 6 of their last 6, with 4 scored and 13 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Athletic Club W's last 10 and 4 of Valencia W's last 6; 5 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Athletic Club W averaged 2.17 goals scored and 1.50 conceded across 6 matches; away from home Valencia W averaged 0.67 scored and 2.33 conceded across 3.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.07 goals from Athletic Club W and 0.56 from Valencia W. From that it rates a home win at 72%, a draw at 20% and an away win at 8%, against 61%, 24% and 16% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 73%.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club W | DWLDW | 1.80 | 1.00 | 50% | 50% |
| Valencia W | LLLLL | 0.67 | 2.17 | 67% | 67% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 78% | 1.20 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 74% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 68% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| Athletic Club W Win | 62% | 1.48 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 52% | 1.80 |
| BTTS No | 51% | 1.80 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.