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Serie B · Brazil
Athletic Club vs Sport Recife prediction and preview
1 Oct 2026, 23:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Athletic Club host Sport Recife in the Serie B (Brazil) on 1 Oct 2026, 23:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.36, which the bookmaker market rated at about 69% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Athletic Club 1–2 Sport Recife.
Going into the match, Athletic Club had won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 17 and conceding 15. Sport Recife had won 5, drawn 0 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 15 scored and 13 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Athletic Club's last 10 and 7 of Sport Recife's last 10; 6 and 8 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Athletic Club averaged 1.14 goals scored and 1.00 conceded across 14 matches; away from home Sport Recife averaged 0.93 scored and 1.27 conceded across 15.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.38 goals from Athletic Club and 1.14 from Sport Recife. From that it rates a home win at 41%, a draw at 29% and an away win at 30%, against 36%, 30% and 34% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 73%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Athletic Club (green) and Sport Recife (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club | DDWLW | 1.70 | 1.50 | 50% | 60% |
| Sport Recife | LWLWL | 1.50 | 1.30 | 70% | 80% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 11 Jun 2026 · Sport Recife 1–1 Athletic Club
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 71% | 1.33 |
| Double Chance 12 | 69% | 1.36 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 69% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 66% | 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 56% | 1.67 |
| Under 10.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
| BTTS Yes | 50% | 1.83 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 44% | 2.15 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.