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Serie A · Italy
Atalanta vs Venezia prediction and preview
12 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Atalanta host Venezia in the Serie A (Italy) on 12 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.57, which the bookmaker market rated at about 62% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Atalanta 3–1 Venezia.
Going into the match, Atalanta had won 5, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 11 and conceding 9. Venezia had won 2, drawn 1 and lost 7 of their last 10, with 16 scored and 23 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Atalanta's last 10 and 6 of Venezia's last 10; 5 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Atalanta averaged 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded across 10 matches; away from home Venezia averaged 1.89 scored and 1.78 conceded across 9.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.95 goals from Atalanta and 1.40 from Venezia. From that it rates a home win at 50%, a draw at 24% and an away win at 27%, against 61%, 23% and 16% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 65%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Atalanta (green) and Venezia (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 78% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 75% | 1.25 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 75% | 1.25 |
| Atalanta Win | 62% | 1.55 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 62% | 1.57 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 59% | 1.62 |
| BTTS Yes | 58% | 1.62 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 58% | 1.62 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.