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Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Spain
Astur vs Mosconia prediction and preview
4 Oct 2026, 10:15 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Astur host Mosconia in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 (Spain) on 4 Oct 2026, 10:15 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 2.5 Goals — fewer than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.70, which the bookmaker market rated at about 55% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Astur 0–0 Mosconia.
Going into the match, Astur had won 0, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 4 matches, scoring 3 and conceding 8. Mosconia had won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 10 scored and 9 conceded.
Both teams scored in 2 of Astur's last 4 and 3 of Mosconia's last 10; 3 and 3 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Astur averaged 0.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded across 2 matches; away from home Mosconia averaged 1.33 scored and 1.17 conceded across 6.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.91 goals from Astur and 1.05 from Mosconia. From that it rates a home win at 29%, a draw at 34% and an away win at 37%, against 21%, 26% and 53% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 69%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Astur (green) and Mosconia (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 74% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 69% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 65% | 1.42 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 55% | 1.70 |
| Mosconia Win | 53% | 1.70 |
| BTTS No | 52% | 1.75 |
| Mosconia HT & FT | 34% | 2.70 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.40 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.