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FA WSL · England
Aston Villa W vs Liverpool W prediction and preview
18 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Aston Villa W host Liverpool W in the FA WSL (England) on 18 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 65% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Aston Villa W 2–1 Liverpool W.
Going into the match, Aston Villa W had won 2, drawn 3 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 10 and conceding 19. Liverpool W had won 4, drawn 1 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 20 scored and 18 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Aston Villa W's last 10 and 6 of Liverpool W's last 10; 5 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Aston Villa W averaged 1.00 goals scored and 2.20 conceded across 5 matches; away from home Liverpool W averaged 2.00 scored and 1.80 conceded across 5.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.69 goals from Aston Villa W and 2.01 from Liverpool W. From that it rates a home win at 32%, a draw at 23% and an away win at 45%, against 26%, 25% and 49% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 50%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Aston Villa W (green) and Liverpool W (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa W | DWLWD | 1.00 | 1.90 | 60% | 50% |
| Liverpool W | LWWWL | 2.00 | 1.80 | 60% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 78% | 1.20 |
| Double Chance X2 | 74% | 1.28 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| BTTS Yes | 58% | 1.62 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 56% | 1.67 |
| Over 9.5 Corners | 50% | 1.83 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.