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FA WSL · England
Aston Villa W vs Crystal Palace W prediction and preview
4 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Aston Villa W host Crystal Palace W in the FA WSL (England) on 4 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.20, which the bookmaker market rated at about 78% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Aston Villa W 1–1 Crystal Palace W.
Going into the match, Aston Villa W had won 2, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 9 matches, scoring 9 and conceding 18. Crystal Palace W had won 5, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 8, with 16 scored and 12 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Aston Villa W's last 9 and 3 of Crystal Palace W's last 8; 5 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Aston Villa W averaged 1.00 goals scored and 2.50 conceded across 4 matches; away from home Crystal Palace W averaged 1.67 scored and 1.33 conceded across 3.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.82 goals from Aston Villa W and 1.13 from Crystal Palace W. From that it rates a home win at 52%, a draw at 25% and an away win at 23%, against 54%, 23% and 23% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 80%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Aston Villa W (green) and Crystal Palace W (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa W | WLWDL | 1.00 | 2.00 | 56% | 56% |
| Crystal Palace W | WDWLD | 2.00 | 1.50 | 38% | 63% |
Averages over each side's last 9 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 78% | 1.20 |
| Double Chance 1X | 77% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 61% | 1.53 |
| BTTS Yes | 56% | 1.67 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 56% | 1.67 |
| Aston Villa W Win | 54% | 1.73 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.