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UEFA Champions League · International
Aston Villa vs Fenerbahçe prediction and preview
14 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Aston Villa host Fenerbahçe in the UEFA Champions League (International) on 14 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.53, which the bookmaker market rated at about 62% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Aston Villa 6–0 Fenerbahçe.
Going into the match, Aston Villa had won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 16 and conceding 17. Fenerbahçe had won 6, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 10, with 24 scored and 7 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Aston Villa's last 10 and 5 of Fenerbahçe's last 10; 8 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Aston Villa averaged 2.44 goals scored and 1.78 conceded across 9 matches; away from home Fenerbahçe averaged 1.86 scored and 0.57 conceded across 14.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.28 goals from Aston Villa and 1.38 from Fenerbahçe. From that it rates a home win at 57%, a draw at 21% and an away win at 22%, against 58%, 23% and 19% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 50%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Aston Villa (green) and Fenerbahçe (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa | DWWWL | 1.60 | 1.70 | 70% | 80% |
| Fenerbahçe | WWWDD | 2.40 | 0.70 | 50% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 79% | 1.20 |
| Double Chance 12 | 77% | 1.22 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 77% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.28 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 62% | 1.53 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 59% | 1.62 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 59% | 1.57 |
| Aston Villa Win | 58% | 1.62 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.