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Premier League · England
Aston Villa vs Brentford prediction and preview
10 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Aston Villa host Brentford in the Premier League (England) on 10 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.50, which the bookmaker market rated at about 65% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Aston Villa 2–2 Brentford.
Going into the match, Aston Villa had won 4, drawn 1 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 15 and conceding 17. Brentford had won 6, drawn 4 and lost 0 of their last 10, with 30 scored and 9 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Aston Villa's last 10 and 7 of Brentford's last 10; 8 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Aston Villa averaged 2.50 goals scored and 1.75 conceded across 8 matches; away from home Brentford averaged 2.13 scored and 1.63 conceded across 8.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.75 goals from Aston Villa and 1.67 from Brentford. From that it rates a home win at 39%, a draw at 24% and an away win at 36%, against 35%, 27% and 37% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 55%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Aston Villa (green) and Brentford (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa | WWWLW | 1.50 | 1.70 | 70% | 80% |
| Brentford | WWDDD | 3.00 | 0.90 | 70% | 70% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 78% | 1.22 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 75% | 1.25 |
| Double Chance 12 | 73% | 1.28 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 65% | 1.50 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| BTTS Yes | 60% | 1.57 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 56% | 1.73 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.