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Serie D - Girone A · Italy
Asti vs Millesimo prediction and preview
4 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Asti host Millesimo in the Serie D - Girone A (Italy) on 4 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.34, which the bookmaker market rated at about 70% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Asti 2–0 Millesimo.
Going into the match, Asti had won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 13 and conceding 14. Millesimo had won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5, with 8 scored and 4 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Asti's last 10 and 2 of Millesimo's last 5; 5 and 2 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Asti averaged 1.75 goals scored and 1.00 conceded across 4 matches; away from home Millesimo averaged 0.00 scored and 1.00 conceded across 2.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.21 goals from Asti and 1.57 from Millesimo. From that it rates a home win at 28%, a draw at 27% and an away win at 45%, against 41%, 27% and 32% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 78%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Asti (green) and Millesimo (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 1X | 70% | 1.31 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 70% | 1.34 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 68% | 1.42 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 54% | 1.71 |
| BTTS Yes | 51% | 1.87 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 46% | 2.01 |
| Asti Win | 41% | 2.30 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.55 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.