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UEFA Champions League · International
AS Roma vs Real Madrid prediction and preview
14 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
AS Roma host Real Madrid in the UEFA Champions League (International) on 14 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS Yes — both teams to score. It was published at odds of 1.40, which the bookmaker market rated at about 67% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: AS Roma 3–4 Real Madrid.
Going into the match, AS Roma had won 5, drawn 4 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, scoring 21 and conceding 10. Real Madrid had won 8, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 24 scored and 9 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of AS Roma's last 10 and 6 of Real Madrid's last 10; 7 and 8 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home AS Roma averaged 2.57 goals scored and 0.57 conceded across 7 matches; away from home Real Madrid averaged 1.58 scored and 1.17 conceded across 12.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.96 goals from AS Roma and 1.71 from Real Madrid. From that it rates a home win at 43%, a draw at 23% and an away win at 33%, against 26%, 24% and 50% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 71%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between AS Roma (green) and Real Madrid (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma | DDWDW | 2.10 | 1.00 | 50% | 70% |
| Real Madrid | WLWWW | 2.40 | 0.90 | 60% | 80% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 76% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 76% | 1.22 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 71% | 1.33 |
| BTTS Yes | 67% | 1.40 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 66% | 1.44 |
| Over 9.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 54% | 1.73 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 53% | 1.80 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.