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FA WSL · England
Arsenal W vs Birmingham City W prediction and preview
17 Oct 2026, 11:45 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Arsenal W host Birmingham City W in the FA WSL (England) on 17 Oct 2026, 11:45 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS No — at least one side to fail to score. It was published at odds of 1.67, which the bookmaker market rated at about 55% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Arsenal W 1–1 Birmingham City W.
Going into the match, Arsenal W had won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 14 and conceding 9. Birmingham City W had won 1, drawn 2 and lost 6 of their last 9, with 12 scored and 21 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Arsenal W's last 10 and 5 of Birmingham City W's last 9; 4 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Arsenal W averaged 2.00 goals scored and 0.33 conceded across 6 matches; away from home Birmingham City W averaged 0.80 scored and 1.80 conceded across 5.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.03 goals from Arsenal W and 0.76 from Birmingham City W. From that it rates a home win at 66%, a draw at 22% and an away win at 12%, against 85%, 10% and 5% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 53%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Arsenal W (green) and Birmingham City W (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal W | LDLWD | 1.40 | 0.90 | 40% | 40% |
| Birmingham City W | LLDLL | 1.33 | 2.33 | 56% | 67% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Arsenal W HT & FT | 68% | 1.40 |
| Arsenal W 1st Half Win | 67% | 1.33 |
| BTTS No | 55% | 1.67 |
| 1st Half Over 1.5 Goals | 54% | 1.73 |
| Over 10.5 Corners | 50% | 1.83 |
| 3-0 | 14% | 7.00 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.