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UEFA Champions League · International
Arsenal vs Lille prediction and preview
13 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Arsenal host Lille in the UEFA Champions League (International) on 13 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.57, which the bookmaker market rated at about 60% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Arsenal 3–0 Lille.
Going into the match, Arsenal had won 8, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, scoring 19 and conceding 8. Lille had won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 16 scored and 11 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Arsenal's last 10 and 6 of Lille's last 10; 6 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Arsenal averaged 1.62 goals scored and 0.85 conceded across 13 matches; away from home Lille averaged 2.00 scored and 1.00 conceded across 10.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.51 goals from Arsenal and 0.66 from Lille. From that it rates a home win at 77%, a draw at 16% and an away win at 7%, against 78%, 15% and 7% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 61%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Arsenal (green) and Lille (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Arsenal Win | 78% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 74% | 1.25 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 60% | 1.57 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 60% | 1.57 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 59% | 1.57 |
| Arsenal 1st Half Win | 58% | 1.57 |
| BTTS No | 57% | 1.62 |
| Arsenal HT & FT | 56% | 1.73 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.