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First League · Russia
Arsenal Tula vs Spartak Kostroma prediction and preview
9 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Arsenal Tula host Spartak Kostroma in the First League (Russia) on 9 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.39, which the bookmaker market rated at about 68% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Arsenal Tula 3–2 Spartak Kostroma.
Going into the match, Arsenal Tula had won 2, drawn 3 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 10 and conceding 17. Spartak Kostroma had won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 13 scored and 9 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Arsenal Tula's last 10 and 4 of Spartak Kostroma's last 10; 6 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Arsenal Tula averaged 1.27 goals scored and 1.45 conceded across 11 matches; away from home Spartak Kostroma averaged 1.00 scored and 1.07 conceded across 14.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.96 goals from Arsenal Tula and 1.37 from Spartak Kostroma. From that it rates a home win at 25%, a draw at 30% and an away win at 45%, against 38%, 30% and 32% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 69%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Arsenal Tula (green) and Spartak Kostroma (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal Tula | LWLDL | 1.00 | 1.70 | 50% | 60% |
| Spartak Kostroma | LWWWW | 1.30 | 0.90 | 40% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 21 Jun 2026 · Arsenal Tula 1–1 Spartak Kostroma
- 25 Apr 2026 · Spartak Kostroma 1–1 Arsenal Tula
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 72% | 1.32 |
| Double Chance 12 | 70% | 1.35 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 68% | 1.39 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 65% | 1.46 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 58% | 1.64 |
| Under 9.5 Corners | 54% | 1.74 |
| BTTS No | 51% | 1.83 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 42% | 2.26 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.