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First League · Montenegro
Arsenal Tivat vs Mornar prediction and preview
17 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Arsenal Tivat host Mornar in the First League (Montenegro) on 17 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance 12 — either side to win, with no draw. It was published at odds of 1.28, which the bookmaker market rated at about 72% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Arsenal Tivat 1–2 Mornar.
Going into the match, Arsenal Tivat had won 1, drawn 5 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 6 and conceding 12. Mornar had won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 20 scored and 11 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Arsenal Tivat's last 10 and 6 of Mornar's last 10; 3 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Arsenal Tivat averaged 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded across 10 matches; away from home Mornar averaged 1.60 scored and 0.73 conceded across 15.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.80 goals from Arsenal Tivat and 1.77 from Mornar. From that it rates a home win at 16%, a draw at 25% and an away win at 59%, against 22%, 28% and 50% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 75%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Arsenal Tivat (green) and Mornar (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal Tivat | DLWLL | 0.60 | 1.20 | 40% | 30% |
| Mornar | WDWDL | 2.00 | 1.10 | 60% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 7 Aug 2026 · Mornar 0–0 Arsenal Tivat
- 12 Apr 2026 · Arsenal Tivat 0–1 Mornar
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 72% | 1.28 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 62% | 1.49 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 59% | 1.62 |
| BTTS No | 56% | 1.64 |
| Mornar Win | 51% | 1.80 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 41% | 2.25 |
| Mornar HT & FT | 32% | 2.88 |
| 0-1 | 15% | 6.00 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.