Home › League stats › First League › Arsenal Tivat vs Dečić
First League · Montenegro
Arsenal Tivat vs Dečić prediction and preview
8 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Arsenal Tivat host Dečić in the First League (Montenegro) on 8 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 2.5 Goals — fewer than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.65, which the bookmaker market rated at about 58% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, Arsenal Tivat had won 1, drawn 4 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 5 and conceding 17. Dečić had won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 11 scored and 9 conceded.
Both teams scored in 3 of Arsenal Tivat's last 10 and 4 of Dečić's last 10; 4 and 3 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Arsenal Tivat averaged 0.78 goals scored and 1.33 conceded across 9 matches; away from home Dečić averaged 0.83 scored and 1.25 conceded across 12.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.86 goals from Arsenal Tivat and 1.15 from Dečić. From that it rates a home win at 26%, a draw at 33% and an away win at 41%, against 20%, 27% and 53% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 67%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Arsenal Tivat (green) and Dečić (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal Tivat | LWLLL | 0.50 | 1.70 | 30% | 40% |
| Dečić | DLDLW | 1.10 | 0.90 | 40% | 30% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 2 Aug 2026 · Dečić 0–0 Arsenal Tivat
- 4 Jul 2026 · Dečić 4–1 Arsenal Tivat
- 20 May 2026 · Dečić 1–2 Arsenal Tivat
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 72% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 71% | 1.31 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 64% | 1.46 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 58% | 1.65 |
| BTTS No | 54% | 1.70 |
| Dečić Win | 51% | 1.70 |
| Dečić HT & FT | 34% | 2.75 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.40 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.