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Primeira Liga · Portugal
Arouca vs Estrela prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 19:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Arouca host Estrela in the Primeira Liga (Portugal) on 11 Oct 2026, 19:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS Yes — both teams to score. It was published at odds of 1.70, which the bookmaker market rated at about 55% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Arouca 1–0 Estrela.
Going into the match, Arouca had won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 12 and conceding 10. Estrela had won 4, drawn 5 and lost 1 of their last 10, with 20 scored and 17 conceded.
Both teams scored in 3 of Arouca's last 10 and 8 of Estrela's last 10; 5 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Arouca averaged 2.17 goals scored and 1.00 conceded across 6 matches; away from home Estrela averaged 2.00 scored and 2.17 conceded across 6.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.69 goals from Arouca and 1.21 from Estrela. From that it rates a home win at 48%, a draw at 26% and an away win at 26%, against 47%, 28% and 25% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 58%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Arouca (green) and Estrela (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 19 Apr 2026 · Arouca 1–0 Estrela
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 1X | 74% | 1.25 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 74% | 1.25 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 68% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| BTTS Yes | 55% | 1.70 |
| Over 8.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 51% | 1.85 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.