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Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 · Spain
Arosa vs Bergantiños prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Arosa host Bergantiños in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 (Spain) on 11 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance X2 — Bergantiños to win or draw. It was published at odds of 1.33, which the bookmaker market rated at about 69% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Arosa 2–2 Bergantiños.
Going into the match, Arosa had won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 16 and conceding 16. Bergantiños had won 7, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 25 scored and 10 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Arosa's last 10 and 5 of Bergantiños's last 10; 6 and 8 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Arosa averaged 1.50 goals scored and 2.33 conceded across 6 matches; away from home Bergantiños averaged 2.40 scored and 0.80 conceded across 5.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.41 goals from Arosa and 2.69 from Bergantiños. From that it rates a home win at 18%, a draw at 18% and an away win at 64%, against 32%, 26% and 42% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 82%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Arosa (green) and Bergantiños (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arosa | DLDLD | 1.60 | 1.60 | 50% | 60% |
| Bergantiños | WWWLW | 2.50 | 1.00 | 50% | 80% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 72% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 68% | 1.37 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| BTTS Yes | 53% | 1.76 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 52% | 1.85 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 48% | 1.95 |
| Bergantiños Win | 41% | 2.15 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.40 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.