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I Liga · Poland
Arka Gdynia vs Polonia Warszawa prediction and preview
10 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Arka Gdynia host Polonia Warszawa in the I Liga (Poland) on 10 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS Yes — both teams to score. It was published at odds of 1.67, which the bookmaker market rated at about 57% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Arka Gdynia 1–2 Polonia Warszawa.
Going into the match, Arka Gdynia had won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 15 and conceding 11. Polonia Warszawa had won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 17 scored and 13 conceded.
Both teams scored in 3 of Arka Gdynia's last 10 and 7 of Polonia Warszawa's last 10; 5 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Arka Gdynia averaged 1.73 goals scored and 1.09 conceded across 11 matches; away from home Polonia Warszawa averaged 1.43 scored and 1.43 conceded across 14.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.26 goals from Arka Gdynia and 1.20 from Polonia Warszawa. From that it rates a home win at 37%, a draw at 30% and an away win at 34%, against 41%, 27% and 32% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 51%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Arka Gdynia (green) and Polonia Warszawa (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arka Gdynia | LLDWD | 1.50 | 1.10 | 30% | 50% |
| Polonia Warszawa | WWDLW | 1.70 | 1.30 | 70% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 75% | 1.25 |
| Double Chance 12 | 73% | 1.30 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 69% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 68% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| BTTS Yes | 57% | 1.67 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 52% | 1.80 |
| Over 10.5 Corners | 50% | 1.83 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.