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Primera B Metropolitana · Argentina
Argentino de Merlo vs Sportivo Italiano prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Argentino de Merlo host Sportivo Italiano in the Primera B Metropolitana (Argentina) on 11 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 64% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Argentino de Merlo 1–2 Sportivo Italiano.
Going into the match, Argentino de Merlo had won 2, drawn 3 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 6 and conceding 11. Sportivo Italiano had won 6, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 17 scored and 6 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Argentino de Merlo's last 10 and 2 of Sportivo Italiano's last 10; 3 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Argentino de Merlo averaged 0.93 goals scored and 1.07 conceded across 15 matches; away from home Sportivo Italiano averaged 1.07 scored and 0.60 conceded across 15.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.89 goals from Argentino de Merlo and 1.19 from Sportivo Italiano. From that it rates a home win at 26%, a draw at 32% and an away win at 41%, against 27%, 31% and 42% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 63%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Argentino de Merlo (green) and Sportivo Italiano (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argentino de Merlo | LLWLL | 0.60 | 1.10 | 40% | 30% |
| Sportivo Italiano | WWDLW | 1.70 | 0.60 | 20% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 31 May 2026 · Sportivo Italiano 0–2 Argentino de Merlo
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 73% | 1.28 |
| Double Chance X2 | 72% | 1.25 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 64% | 1.44 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 62% | 1.50 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 60% | 1.57 |
| BTTS No | 53% | 1.73 |
| Sportivo Italiano Win | 42% | 2.10 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 40% | 2.35 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.