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Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Spain
Aretxabaleta vs Pasaia KE prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 14:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Aretxabaleta host Pasaia KE in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 (Spain) on 11 Oct 2026, 14:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance 1X — Aretxabaleta to win or draw. It was published at odds of 1.25, which the bookmaker market rated at about 73% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Aretxabaleta 4–2 Pasaia KE.
Going into the match, Aretxabaleta had won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 14 and conceding 15. Pasaia KE had won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 10 scored and 19 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Aretxabaleta's last 10 and 4 of Pasaia KE's last 10; 7 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Aretxabaleta averaged 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded across 5 matches; away from home Pasaia KE averaged 0.60 scored and 2.40 conceded across 5.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.09 goals from Aretxabaleta and 1.02 from Pasaia KE. From that it rates a home win at 61%, a draw at 22% and an away win at 17%, against 44%, 29% and 27% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 83%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Aretxabaleta (green) and Pasaia KE (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aretxabaleta | WLDDW | 1.40 | 1.50 | 70% | 70% |
| Pasaia KE | WWWDL | 1.00 | 1.90 | 40% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 15 Apr 2026 · Pasaia KE 3–2 Aretxabaleta
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 1X | 73% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 68% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 66% | 1.39 |
| BTTS Yes | 53% | 1.71 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 53% | 1.65 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 47% | 2.20 |
| Aretxabaleta Win | 45% | 2.05 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.10 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.