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Serie D - Girone D · Italy
Arconatese vs Pro Sesto prediction and preview
4 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Arconatese host Pro Sesto in the Serie D - Girone D (Italy) on 4 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.25, which the bookmaker market rated at about 74% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Arconatese 1–1 Pro Sesto.
Going into the match, Arconatese had won 0, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 5 matches, scoring 3 and conceding 12. Pro Sesto had won 5, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 9, with 19 scored and 8 conceded.
Both teams scored in 3 of Arconatese's last 5 and 3 of Pro Sesto's last 9; 3 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Arconatese averaged 0.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded across 2 matches; away from home Pro Sesto averaged 1.50 scored and 1.00 conceded across 4.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.65 goals from Arconatese and 2.23 from Pro Sesto. From that it rates a home win at 9%, a draw at 19% and an away win at 73%, against 18%, 22% and 59% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 79%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Arconatese (green) and Pro Sesto (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arconatese | DLLDL | 0.60 | 2.40 | 60% | 60% |
| Pro Sesto | WWWWL | 2.11 | 0.89 | 33% | 56% |
Averages over each side's last 9 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 75% | 1.24 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 74% | 1.25 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 68% | 1.38 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.40 |
| Pro Sesto Win | 59% | 1.60 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 52% | 1.83 |
| BTTS Yes | 51% | 1.90 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 48% | 1.97 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.