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Copa Venezuela · Venezuela
Aragua FC vs Caracas FC prediction and preview
14 Oct 2026, 19:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Aragua FC host Caracas FC in the Copa Venezuela (Venezuela) on 14 Oct 2026, 19:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 2.5 Goals — fewer than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.80, which the bookmaker market rated at about 53% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Aragua FC 3–1 Caracas FC.
Going into the match, Aragua FC had won 6, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, scoring 22 and conceding 10. Caracas FC had won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 16 scored and 8 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Aragua FC's last 10 and 4 of Caracas FC's last 10; 6 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Aragua FC averaged 1.36 goals scored and 0.64 conceded across 11 matches; away from home Caracas FC averaged 1.46 scored and 1.31 conceded across 13.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.57 goals from Aragua FC and 1.24 from Caracas FC. From that it rates a home win at 44%, a draw at 27% and an away win at 29%, against 50%, 26% and 24% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 47%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Aragua FC (green) and Caracas FC (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aragua FC | WWWDW | 2.20 | 1.00 | 70% | 60% |
| Caracas FC | WWDLL | 1.60 | 0.80 | 40% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 24 Jun 2026 · Caracas FC 1–1 Aragua FC
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 72% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 66% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 61% | 1.48 |
| BTTS Yes | 53% | 1.74 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 53% | 1.80 |
| Aragua FC Win | 44% | 1.80 |
| Aragua FC HT & FT | 34% | 2.75 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.40 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.